by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 11:49:00 AM
From BofA:
The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our tracking estimate exaggerates the softness in Q1 to some extent because elevated gold imports ought to result in an offsetting increase in inventory accumulation, but the Q4 GDP data suggest this offset is unlikely to be captured in real time. [Feb 28th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28, down from 2.3 percent on February 19. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent. [Feb 28th estimate]
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