by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2025 07:00:00 AM
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending April 11, 2025.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.5 percent on
a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8
percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 12 percent from the previous
week and was 68 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent
compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates moved 20 basis points higher last week, abruptly slowing the pace of mortgage
application activity with refinance volume dropping 12 percent and purchase volume falling 5 percent for
the week. Purchase volume remains almost 13 percent above last year’s level, but economic uncertainty
and the volatility in rates is likely to make at least some prospective buyers more hesitant to move forward
with a purchase,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “One notable change last week
was the full percentage point increase in the ARM share. Given the jump in rates, more borrowers are
opting for the lower initial rates that come with an ARM, with initial fixed rates closer to 6 percent in our
survey last week. The ARM share at 9.6 percent was the highest since November 2023, and this reflects
the share of units. On a dollar basis, almost a quarter of the application volume last week was for ARMs,
as borrowers with larger loans are even more likely to opt for an ARM.”
…
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances
($806,500 or less) increased to 6.81 percent from 6.61 percent, with points decreasing to 0.62 from 0.63
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.
According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted.
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).
Purchase application activity is up about 31% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 9% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.
The refinance index decreased.
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