On the latest episode of Weekend Winners, the panel take aim at Doncaster where the Flat turf season gets truly under way with the Lincoln Handicap on Saturday.
Host Kate Tracey is joined by At The Races’ Declan Rix and Sky Sports Racing’s senior form analyst Jamie Lynch to preview the weekend’s action, with betting angles and insights advised.
Conditions on Town Moor are currently good to soft, with 22 runners set to battle it out for the prestigious William Hill Lincoln Handicap – the traditional curtain-raiser for the turf Flat season.
Last year’s winner Mr Professor is back to defend his title, while Wathnan Racing are well represented through Midnight Gun and Native Warrior. Thunder Run heads the market for Clifford Lee and Karl Burke, with Rossa Ryan getting the ride on Orandi, who carries a 5lb penalty.
Kate Tracey
“The trends landed me back on Thunder Run. There’s the four-year-old angle as well as his official rating of 100 – four of the last eight winners have had that rating, with the remainder there or thereabouts. He’s making his reappearance after finishing fourth in the Balmoral when he was heavily supported, beaten just three lengths.
“His best efforts have come on a better surface, I know he’s proven himself to be versatile but he does seem to prefer that quicker ground – hopefully that doesn’t count against him. The fact he was unraced as a two-year-old would suggest he’s got plenty more to come.”
Jamie Lynch
“There’s a horse hidden in plain sight with the same profile as Thunder Run, but with a trend against him. Whip Cracker is not getting discussed because the overarching trend with the Lincoln is it’s either first time out or back from Dubai – those are the only ways you win a Lincoln in the last 25 years.
The Wolverhampton [trial] race has almost become redundant but, if you look at it, Whip Cracker did so well to finish fourth in a messy race and all the positives that saw him sent off 9/4 favourite are still in play. The winner that day was Symbol Of Light under a brilliant ride from Jason Watson, while Whip Cracker got caught too far back but still had the second-highest finishing percentage speed in the race.
“Since that day, the yard has gone from operating at 10 per cent to 22 per cent, including a double at Chelmsford on Thursday. This is exactly the horse you look for in a Lincoln, sitting on some strong form lines including Bolster and Jayarebe. The Wolverhampton run has been held against him but I think he’d be a single-figure price if he was coming here straightaway. I’m thinking and hoping he’s a bit overpriced given the qualities that he brings to the table.
Declan Rix
“You probably want a four or five-year-old with a progressive profile so I’m going with Thunder Run. A four-year-old this season, he’s only had six career starts and I’m hoping there’s a little bit more to come this year. I just can’t get his run in last season’s Balmoral out of my head – he did way too much on soft ground at the front end and the winner’s finishing speed percentage was 93 per cent.
“He clearly did way too much too soon with no cover up the stiff track when he was a three-year-old taking on his elders. If they can ration his speed a little better this time he could go well, and Karl Burke is pound for pound one of the best trainers in Europe and maybe the world.”
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