by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 10:13:00 AM
The advance estimate of Q1 GDP is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, April 30th. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in real GDP, quarter-over-quarter annualized – or essentially no growth in Q1.
From BofA:
We expect 1Q advance GDP to print at a weak 0.4% q/q saar, largely on the back of an
import surge driven by front loading ahead of the tariffs. We look for a rise in 1Q
inventory accumulation as well, but not enough to offset higher imports. The risks to our
inventory tracking and 1Q GDP print are to the downside, since inventories are
susceptible to measurement issues. [Apr 17th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to -0.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 24th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.5 percent on April 24, down from -2.2 percent on April 17. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.4 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.9 percent to 7.1 percent. [Apr 24th estimate]
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